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Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-15 19:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AZORES... ...HELENE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AZORES... As of 2:00 PM AST Sat Sep 15 the center of Helene was located near 39.5, -33.0 with movement NE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 33A
2018-09-15 19:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 690 WTNT33 KNHC 151744 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 33A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 200 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AZORES... ...HELENE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.5N 33.0W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ . Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/ . DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 33.0 West. Helene is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Helene should pass near or over the western Azores later today or tonight and then approach Ireland and the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but gradual weakening is expected beginning tonight or on Sunday. Helene is expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. Flores recently reported a wind gust of 44 mph (70 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area within the next few hours. These conditions should continue through tonight. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts 1 to 2 inches across the far western Azores. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) are expected across western Ireland and Scotland. SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another couple of days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-15 16:37:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 14:37:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 14:37:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 33
2018-09-15 16:35:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 582 WTNT43 KNHC 151435 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 The cloud pattern of Helene is starting to show signs of decay, with the central convection decreasing since the previous advisory and the low-level center becoming partly exposed in a region between convective bands. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt for this advisory in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus, but it is possible this is generous. The 34-kt wind radii in the southeastern quadrant were revised based on a partial ASCAT pass. Helene is moving toward colder water and into an area of strong shear associated with the mid-latitude westerlies. This should cause the system to weaken and, as it merges with a frontal system, become an extratropical cyclone in about 36 h. The global models forecast Helene to be absorbed into a large non-tropical low over the far north Atlantic after it passes Ireland and the United Kingdom, and thus the system is forecast to dissipate completely between 72-96 h. Helene has turned northeastward with the initial motion now 035/18. A faster motion toward the northeast should occur during the remainder of the cyclone's life as it becomes more embedded in the westerlies. On the forecast track, Helene should pass near or over the western Azores later today or tonight, and head toward Ireland and the United Kingdom late this weekend and early next week. There are no significant changes to either the track guidance or the official forecast track since the last advisory. Tropical storm conditions should spread over portions of the Azores during the next several hours and continue through tonight. Helene is also expected to be a storm-force post-tropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom in two to three days. Interests in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Helene. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 38.8N 34.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 40.8N 31.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 43.0N 27.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 45.5N 21.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1200Z 49.0N 15.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1200Z 59.0N 1.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2018-09-15 16:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 021 FONT13 KNHC 151434 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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