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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-16 16:42:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 16 the center of Helene was located near 43.8, -25.7 with movement NE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Public Advisory Number 37
2018-09-16 16:42:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 464 WTNT33 KNHC 161442 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 ...HELENE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.8N 25.7W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM N OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Post-Tropical Helene in those locations. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene was located near latitude 43.8 North, longitude 25.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the post-tropical cyclone will approach Ireland and the United Kingdom on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today. Some weakening is expected by Monday, and the system is forecast to be absorbed by another low pressure area by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another day or so and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at: http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin. Additional information can also be found in High Seas Forecast issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Forecast Advisory Number 37
2018-09-16 16:41:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 946 WTNT23 KNHC 161441 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS... //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF MET EIREANN AT HTTPS... //WWW.MET.IE/. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-16 10:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 08:44:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 08:44:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 36
2018-09-16 10:43:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 431 WTNT43 KNHC 160843 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 Helene's cloud pattern is certainly looking less and less like a tropical cyclone this morning. Based on conventional satellite imagery and AMSU data, Helene is quickly undergoing an extratropical transition, and this dynamic process is expected to be completed later today, as the cyclone moves away from the Azores. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt, and is based primarily on 2326 UTC ASCAT-A wind retrievals. Cold (22C) sea surface temperatures and strong westerly shear will continue to disrupt Helene's vertical structure and should cause the cyclone to complete the extratropical transition in 12 hours, or sooner. The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 50/22 kt, within the ferocious mid-latitude westerlies. The global models are in remarkably good agreement with Helene accelerating northeastward and becoming absorbed in a large baroclinic zone extending over northern United Kingdom in 72 hours, and the official forecast reflects this scenario. Earlier 2326 UTC METOP-A ASCAT scatterometer data indicated that the 34 kt and 50 kt wind radii, particularly in NW and NE quadrants, had decreased considerably. Accordingly, an adjustment was made on this advisory. Interests in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Helene. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office athttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 42.5N 28.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 44.5N 24.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/0600Z 47.4N 18.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1800Z 50.8N 10.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0600Z 55.1N 3.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ Forecaster Roberts
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