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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-15 04:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 02:39:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 03:28:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 31
2018-09-15 04:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 033 WTNT43 KNHC 150236 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 Data from a timely ASCAT pass indicate that Helene still carries winds of 60 kt, primarily in the eastern semicircle. The cloud pattern continues to show a low-level center just south of the main convection, marking the strong shear which is affecting the system. Guidance indicates that Helene will not change much in intensity in the next 12 hours, and only a slight decrease in the winds is anticipated after that time. The wind field is forecast to expand mainly in the southeast quadrant, which is the area of the cyclone that most likely will affect the Azores. After passing to the north of, or near, the Azores in about 24 hours, Helene will be moving over cold waters and become post-tropical. The cyclone should be absorbed by a larger extratropical low, as the cyclone quickly approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom. Satellite fixes indicate that Helene is moving toward the north-northeast or 030 degrees at about 16 kt. Helene is embedded within the fast southwesterly flow ahead of a sharp mid-level trough and this pattern should steer the cyclone toward the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. Track guidance is very consistent with this solution, and the NHC forecast continues in the middle of the tight guidance envelope. Helene is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom in a few days. Interests in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Helene. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 35.8N 35.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 38.0N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 40.3N 31.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 42.5N 26.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0000Z 45.0N 21.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0000Z 51.5N 9.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2018-09-15 04:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 383 FONT13 KNHC 150235 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 12 84(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X 47(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-15 04:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND RAINS TO THE AZORES THIS WEEKEND... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 14 the center of Helene was located near 35.8, -35.8 with movement NNE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Advisory Number 31
2018-09-15 04:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 204 WTNT23 KNHC 150234 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE IRELAND AND UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS... //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF MET EIREANN AT HTTPS... //WWW.MET.IE/. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 35.8W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 70SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 35.8W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 36.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 38.0N 34.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.3N 31.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.5N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.0N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 51.5N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 190SE 170SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 35.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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