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Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-25 19:40:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 2:00 PM AST Sun Aug 25 the center of Dorian was located near 11.3, -53.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 5A
2019-08-25 19:40:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 251740 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 ...DORIAN GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.3N 53.4W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches or warnings could be issued later today for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 53.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning are by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday night or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-25 16:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 14:52:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 14:52:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-08-25 16:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 251449 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 The convective organization of Dorian has improved a little since the last advisory, as a more persistent area of central convection has formed along with increased, but ragged, outer banding. However, the various satellite intensity estimates remain clustered around 35 kt, and that remains the initial intensity. A combination of 1-minute GOES-16 visible imagery and microwave satellite data have helped pinpoint the center, and the initial motion is 280/12. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with a more northwestward motion possible thereafter as Dorian approaches an upper-level low pressure area forecast to be over the north-central Caribbean. The model guidance continues the previous trend of being south of and a bit faster than the previous runs, and as a result the new forecast track is again shifted a little to the south. The new forecast lies between the previous forecast and the various consensus models. However, it is south of the forecasts of the HWRF, the UKMET, and the UKMET Ensemble mean. Additional adjustments to the track may be required on the next advisory if the current model trends continue. While vertical wind shear is decreasing over Dorian, the cyclone still appears to be ingesting dry air based on the ragged convective pattern. Some dry air entrainment is expected to continue for the next few days, and based on this the new intensity forecast again calls for gradual strengthening through 72 h. This part of the intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The intensity forecast becomes low confidence after 72 h due to uncertainties in the amount of shear and land that Dorian will encounter. The new forecast calls for some weakening due to shear before Dorian moves over Hispaniola, followed by weakening to a depression due to passage over the island. However, the large range of possibilities includes both Dorian going north of Hispaniola and remaining a hurricane and the small cyclone dissipating completely over Hispaniola. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Barbados, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. Additional watches and warnings for other portions of the Lesser Antilles could be required later today. 2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola, but interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 11.2N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 11.5N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 12.0N 56.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 12.7N 59.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 13.5N 61.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 15.6N 65.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 17.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-08-25 16:48:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 251448 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 13(31) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 2(23) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 10(29) 1(30) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) 1(24) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 7(31) 1(32) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) X(21) X(21) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 51(55) 2(57) X(57) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 19(37) X(37) X(37) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 11(46) X(46) X(46) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 46(51) 9(60) X(60) X(60) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 8(51) X(51) X(51) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 38(39) 21(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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