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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 4A
2019-08-25 13:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 251131 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 ...DORIAN CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 52.1W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches will likely be issued later today for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 52.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion should continue today, followed by a motion toward the west-northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, Dorian is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles late Monday or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-25 10:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 08:50:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 08:50:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-08-25 10:49:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250849 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 The convective organization of Dorian is about the same as it was several hour ago with the storm only producing small, generally short-lived thunderstorm areas. GOES-16 1-minute satellite images have been particularly helpful in locating the center in between bands of convection to the north and south of the cyclone. The initial wind speed is kept at 35 kt based on the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix. Dorian continues moving westward or 280/11 kt. A west to west-northwestward course of the tropical cyclone is expected during the next several days as a mid-level ridge remains in place over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. There has been a noticeable change in the guidance tonight, with many models faster and to the southwest of earlier runs. This is not uncommon in the early stages of tropical Atlantic cyclones where the guidance has historically demonstrated a slow, poleward bias. Given the lack of interaction with even features at the subtropical latitudes, it makes sense to follow the trend of the latest guidance and shift the track about 30 n mi southwest during most of the forecast. Notably, the GFS and ECMWF models are still south of the new NHC prediction, and further adjustments could be required later today. The intensity forecast appears to be a battle between an increasingly conducive oceanic and shear environment during the next couple of days versus plentiful dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. These mixed conditions primarily point toward slow strengthening during that time while Dorian approaches the Windward Islands, and no change has been made to the first part of the forecast. While Dorian still has a chance to become a hurricane over the eastern Caribbean, model guidance has been trending toward a higher-shear environment caused by a large upper low in a few days. Thus the intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one at long range, although it remains above most of the guidance. It should be stressed that Dorian is likely to be a difficult cyclone to forecast due to the marginal environment it is embedded within and its small size. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Barbados, and additional watches and warnings for the Windward and Leeward Islands will likely be required later today. 2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of impacts in Puerto Rico or Hispaniola, but interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 11.0N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 11.3N 53.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 11.8N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 12.4N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 13.2N 59.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 15.2N 63.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 17.1N 67.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 19.5N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-08-25 10:45:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 250845 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 4(26) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) 2(32) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 2(26) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 17(33) 1(34) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) X(18) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 6(24) X(24) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) 1(24) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) X(23) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) X(15) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 2(20) X(20) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 1(27) X(27) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 51(53) 9(62) X(62) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 5(26) X(26) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 40(46) 1(47) X(47) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 38(56) 1(57) X(57) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 1(23) X(23) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 36(64) 1(65) X(65) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) X(27) X(27) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 27(48) 1(49) X(49) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 49(56) 7(63) X(63) X(63) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-25 10:44:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 25 the center of Dorian was located near 11.0, -51.6 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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