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Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-08-25 23:04:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 523 FONT15 KNHC 252104 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 12(30) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 7(26) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 11(41) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 6(42) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) 1(31) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) X(28) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) X(19) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 7(35) X(35) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 3(34) X(34) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 1(19) X(19) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 45(62) X(62) X(62) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) X(27) X(27) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 27(32) 5(37) X(37) X(37) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 35(49) 3(52) X(52) X(52) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 1( 1) 34(35) 35(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 1( 1) 32(33) 27(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBADOS 34 X 8( 8) 63(71) 3(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) BARBADOS 50 X 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-25 23:04:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN STRENGTHENING... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 25 the center of Dorian was located near 11.5, -54.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 6
2019-08-25 23:04:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 252104 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 ...DORIAN STRENGTHENING... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 54.2W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Grenada and its dependencies. The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches or warnings could be issued tonight for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 54.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday night or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-08-25 23:00:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 252059 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 54.2W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 54.2W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 53.5W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.8N 55.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.4N 58.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.1N 60.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.1N 62.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.4N 66.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.5N 70.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N 73.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 54.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 26/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-25 19:41:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 17:41:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 15:24:34 GMT
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