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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 13

2019-07-25 10:35:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250835 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Dalila is still technically a tropical cyclone based on the development of new convection within 70-75 nmi northeast of the center, which barely results in a Dvorak current intensity estimate of T1.5/25 kt. In addition, a 0539Z ASCAT-C overpass indicated a few 25-kt vectors were present in the northern semicircle. Therefore, Dalila remains a 25-kt tropical depression for this advisory. Having said that, recent satellite trends indicate that the convection is beginning to separate and move away from the low-level center due to northwesterly vertical wind shear, and this negative trend should continue, resulting in Dalila degenerating into a remnant low pressure system later today while the system moves over 24 deg C water. Dissipation of the cyclone is expected in 48-72 hours. Dalila is moving slowly northwestward or 315/05 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by this afternoon, followed by a westward motion on Friday and Saturday, which is expected to continue until dissipation occurs. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple consensus model TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 21.6N 120.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 22.0N 121.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0600Z 22.5N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z 22.8N 124.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 23.1N 125.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Tropical Depression Dalila (EP5/EP052019)

2019-07-25 10:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DALILA BARELY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 the center of Dalila was located near 21.6, -120.4 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Tropical Depression Dalila Public Advisory Number 13

2019-07-25 10:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Dalila Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019 ...DALILA BARELY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 120.4W ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dalila was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 120.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur this afternoon, and that general motion should continue until the system dissipates in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Dalila is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2019-07-25 10:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250832 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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