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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-07-23 22:31:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 232030 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 2100 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 118.2W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 118.2W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.7N 120.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.3N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.8N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 118.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
2019-07-23 16:48:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Jul 2019 14:48:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Jul 2019 14:48:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-07-23 16:38:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231438 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Dalila continues to battle 15-20 kt of northerly shear with deep convection displaced across the southern semicircle of the storm. Satellite imagery indicates that there are multiple low level swirls encircling a mean center that is located just north of the edge of the convection. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and UW-CIMMS support maintaining a 35 kt initial intensity for this advisory. The initial motion is 330/07. A mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States will steer the cyclone to the northwest through much of tonight. As the system weakens, it will become steered by an increasing component of the low-level flow, resulting in a turn more to the west-northwest Wednesday and Thursday. Similar to the past few model cycles, the latest guidance has shifted slightly to the west, and therefore the official forecast track has also been adjusted a little in that direction. Dalila is approaching the 26 C isotherm and the center is forecast to cross it in about 12 hours, which should cause a weakening trend to begin by tonight. In addition, the current shear is not expected to decrease significantly in the next day or so, and during that time the cyclone will be moving into a drier, more stable environment. These factors should cause Dalila to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low by Wednesday night. The latest forecast is essentially an update of the previous official intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 18.7N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 19.4N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 20.3N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 20.9N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown
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Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-07-23 16:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 172 FOPZ15 KNHC 231435 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 1500 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 14(14) 14(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Dalila (EP5/EP052019)
2019-07-23 16:35:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 the center of Dalila was located near 18.7, -117.7 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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