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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-07-24 22:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 242031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 119.8W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 119.8W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.9N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.3N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.8N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 119.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Dalila (EP5/EP052019)
2019-07-24 17:57:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 the center of Dalila was located near 20.5, -119.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Dalila Graphics
2019-07-24 16:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2019 14:32:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2019 15:24:11 GMT
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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-07-24 16:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 241431 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Deep convection associated with the cyclone has continued to decrease in coverage this morning, however, there is still a broken band of convection over the southeastern portion of the circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB support maintaining an intensity of 30 kt for this advisory. Dalila will be moving over SSTs of 23-24 deg C later today, and into a dry and more stable airmass. This should result in weakening, and the system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours. It appears that Dalila has taken a northward jog this morning, but the longer-term motion estimate is 320/6 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Dalila should continue moving northwestward today, then turn west-northwestward as it comes under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position, however, the updated official forecast is still near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 20.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 21.1N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 22.3N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Dalila (EP5/EP052019)
2019-07-24 16:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 the center of Dalila was located near 20.5, -119.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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