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Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
2019-07-23 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Jul 2019 20:33:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Jul 2019 21:22:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-07-23 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 612 WTPZ45 KNHC 232032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Dalila has become less organized since the previous advisory. Northerly shear and cooler waters has caused the primary convective area to decrease in coverage and become more separated from the surface circulation. An ASCAT overpass from around midday sampled the southeastern portion of the circulation and detected 35 to 40 kt winds, which suggests Dalila could have been slightly stronger than analyzed this morning. Based on the ASCAT and the recent degradation of the convective organization, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. Dalila is moving northwestward or 325/7 kt. The cyclone is currently moving around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States. As Dalila weakens and becomes a more vertically shallow system during the next 12 to 24 hours, it should turn west-northwestward to westward within the low-level steering flow. The latest guidance envelope is not much different from the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Dalila is currently crossing the 26C isotherm and the northerly shear is not forecast to abate. As a result, gradual weakening is anticipated. As the cyclone moves over even cooler SSTs and into a more stable air mass during the next 24 hours, the system should lose its remaining deep convection and become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 to 36 hours. The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 19.1N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 20.7N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 21.3N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z 21.8N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dalila (EP5/EP052019)
2019-07-23 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 the center of Dalila was located near 19.1, -118.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 7
2019-07-23 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 232031 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 ...DALILA HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 118.2W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 118.2 West. Dalila is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday and this motion should continue through Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Dalila is forecast to become a tropical depression later tonight, and degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-07-23 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 232031 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 2100 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 26(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 120W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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