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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Public Advisory Number 1
2013-07-08 05:01:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080301 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 07 2013 ...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 47.2W ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT. THE GOVERNMENT OF SAINT LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAINT LUCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * DOMINICA * SAINT LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAINT VINCENT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST. CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS SAME RAPID WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL SHOULD APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA EARLY ON TUESDAY. RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-07-08 04:59:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 080258 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 0300 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 2 4 20 30 TROP DEPRESSION 11 13 11 11 16 37 37 TROPICAL STORM 87 77 70 61 60 41 32 HURRICANE 2 8 17 27 20 3 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 7 15 22 18 3 1 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 2 X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 45KT 35KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 16(32) 2(34) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 11(38) X(38) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 5(39) X(39) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 3(39) X(39) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) X(37) X(37) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 22(33) X(33) X(33) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) X(24) X(24) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) X(21) X(21) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 7(30) X(30) X(30) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 11(11) 19(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 50(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 23(23) 29(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 39(39) 19(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 36(36) 15(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 19(19) 10(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 44(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-07-08 04:56:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080255 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 0300 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SAINT VINCENT. THE GOVERNMENT OF SAINT LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAINT LUCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * DOMINICA * SAINT LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAINT VINCENT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 47.2W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 47.2W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 46.1W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 10.8N 50.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.1N 55.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.9N 60.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.6N 65.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.4N 73.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 25.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 47.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
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