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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2013-07-08 10:36:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 080835 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 0900 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 2 10 21 31 TROP DEPRESSION 11 14 11 11 26 35 36 TROPICAL STORM 87 77 70 61 56 41 32 HURRICANE 2 8 17 26 8 3 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 7 15 22 8 3 1 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 45KT 35KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) X(22) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 2(31) X(31) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) X(39) X(39) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) 7(35) X(35) X(35) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 26(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) AVES 34 X X( X) 21(21) 42(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) AVES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 52(53) 4(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 64(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 1( 1) 52(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X 6( 6) 41(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number speed wind storm

Summary for Tropical Storm CHANTAL (AT3/AL032013)

2013-07-08 10:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CHANTAL CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 the center of CHANTAL was located near 10.4, -49.5 with movement W at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tags: summary storm tropical tropical storm

Tropical Storm CHANTAL Public Advisory Number 2

2013-07-08 10:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080835 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2013 ...CHANTAL CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.4N 49.5W ABOUT 705 MI...1130 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * DOMINICA * SAINT LUCIA * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAINT VINCENT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST. CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL SHOULD APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Advisory Number 2

2013-07-08 10:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080834 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 0900 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * DOMINICA * SAINT LUCIA * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAINT VINCENT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 49.5W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 49.5W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 48.4W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 11.4N 53.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 12.9N 57.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.6N 62.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.2N 66.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 22.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 49.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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