je.st
news
Tag: chantal
Summary for Tropical Storm CHANTAL (AT3/AL032013)
2013-07-08 23:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEARING CHANTAL... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Jul 8 the center of CHANTAL was located near 11.8, -53.9 with movement WNW at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm CHANTAL Public Advisory Number 4
2013-07-08 23:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 082135 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013 CORRECTED TO ADD TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEARING CHANTAL... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 53.9W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * DOMINICA * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI INTERESTS IN HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST. CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL SHOULD REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...AND REACH PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE WEDNESDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm CHANTAL Graphics
2013-07-08 23:09:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2013 20:40:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2013 21:05:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-07-08 22:41:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 082041 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF CHANTAL HAS OCCURRED TODAY...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT. HOWEVER...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO THE CYCLONE AND IT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY SHORTLY. VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/23 KT. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...SO A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY DAYS 3-5...A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA AND PHASE UP WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD CREATE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AXIS AND PRODUCE A WEAKER STEERING PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE BAHAMAS. AS A RESULT...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE STEERING FLOW COLLAPSES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR RIGHT AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND AND AHEAD OF CHANTAL FAVOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...AND CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES HISPANIOLA. AFTER CHANTAL MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA ON DAY 2/3...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWS THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 11.8N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 13.0N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 14.6N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 16.2N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 17.8N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 21.0N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 24.3N 76.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 26.7N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-07-08 22:40:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 082040 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 2100 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 11 28 30 TROP DEPRESSION 5 8 8 13 29 38 37 TROPICAL STORM 92 78 68 57 53 32 32 HURRICANE 4 13 23 27 7 2 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 12 19 22 7 2 1 HUR CAT 2 1 1 3 4 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 45KT 30KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 1(19) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 2(17) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) 1(24) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23) X(23) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24) X(24) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) X(40) X(40) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 19(37) 1(38) X(38) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 33(46) X(46) X(46) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 47(49) 13(62) X(62) X(62) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE 34 X X( X) 22(22) 22(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) PONCE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 18(18) 10(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BARBUDA 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANTIGUA 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GUADELOUPE 34 X 23(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) AVES 34 X 6( 6) 71(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) AVES 50 X X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) AVES 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 X 58(58) 7(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) DOMINICA 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MARTINIQUE 34 X 78(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) MARTINIQUE 50 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MARTINIQUE 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 52(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) SAINT LUCIA 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT LUCIA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARBADOS 34 1 41(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) BARBADOS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Sites : [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] next »