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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-07-09 23:04:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092104 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 CHANTAL PRODUCED TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG ITS PATH THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST OBSERVED WIND GUST...68 KT...WAS REPORTED BY METEO-FRANCE AT LAMENTIN AIRPORT IN MARTINIQUE. ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE RAGGED...THE CYCLONE HAS A VERY SMALL CENTER OF CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 55 KNOTS. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS IS FORECAST BEFORE CHANTAL CROSSES HISPANIOLA...WHERE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE...BUT COULD ALLOW MODEST RESTRENGTHENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CHANTAL CONTINUES RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 23 KNOTS...STEERED BY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA...THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LAST RUN AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THIS WESTWARD MODEL TREND CONTINUES IN THE NEXT CYCLE...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT WILL BE REQUIRED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 15.2N 63.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 16.5N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.0N 70.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 20.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 22.0N 75.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 26.0N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 28.0N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 31.1N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-07-09 22:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 092056 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 2100 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 12 12 10 12 24 TROP DEPRESSION 1 8 40 33 25 27 33 TROPICAL STORM 84 69 45 49 57 53 40 HURRICANE 15 22 3 5 8 7 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 14 19 3 5 8 6 3 HUR CAT 2 1 2 X 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 4(19) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 4(19) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 3(21) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 3(22) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) 2(32) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 4(34) X(34) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 2(26) X(26) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 19(34) 1(35) X(35) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 1(20) X(20) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND TURK 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) LES CAYES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 8( 8) 25(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X 22(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CAPE BEATA 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 16(17) 15(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 72(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE 34 27 7(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) SAN JUAN 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm CHANTAL (AT3/AL032013)
2013-07-09 22:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL HEADING FOR HISPANIOLA... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Jul 9 the center of CHANTAL was located near 15.2, -63.7 with movement WNW at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Public Advisory Number 8
2013-07-09 22:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 092056 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 ...CHANTAL HEADING FOR HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 63.7W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARAHONA TO SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * TURKS AND CAICOS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST THE CENTER. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH PUERTO RICO TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HAITI BY LATE WEDNESDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE...ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES...WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY THE FOLLOWING AMOUNTS ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... PUERTO RICO....1 TO 3 FT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA...2 TO 4 FT NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...1 TO 3 FT SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS....1 TO 3 FT RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Advisory Number 8
2013-07-09 22:55:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTNT23 KNHC 092055 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 2100 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARAHONA TO SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * TURKS AND CAICOS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 63.7W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 63.7W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.5N 66.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.0N 70.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.0N 75.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 28.0N 78.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 31.1N 80.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 63.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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