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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Graphics
2013-07-08 13:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2013 11:50:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2013 09:05:49 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CHANTAL (AT3/AL032013)
2013-07-08 13:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 8:00 AM AST Mon Jul 8 the center of CHANTAL was located near 10.6, -50.6 with movement W at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Public Advisory Number 2A
2013-07-08 13:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 081147 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 800 AM AST MON JUL 08 2013 ...CHANTAL MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 50.6W ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * DOMINICA * SAINT LUCIA * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAINT VINCENT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST. CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL SHOULD REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Graphics
2013-07-08 11:09:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2013 08:37:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2013 09:05:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-07-08 10:36:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080836 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2013 CHANTAL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL DEFINED...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE RAGGED-LOOKING IN APPEARANCE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 2.5...SO THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA IS NOT STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT WESTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN 1-2 DAYS. ALSO...CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE DEEP TROPICS HAVE DIFFICULTY STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND 2 DAYS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT CHANTAL WILL HAVE INTERACTED WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING IN THE 3-4 DAY TIME FRAME. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES OVER THE FORECAST TRACK AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE 3-5 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER...IS NOT HIGH. LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT A RAPID WESTWARD MOTION... 280/23...IS CONTINUING. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD LEAD TO A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT 3-5 DAYS...THE NHC TRACK IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE GFS...ONE OF THE FEW DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MAINTAIN A COHERENT VORTEX THROUGH DAY 5...IS FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 10.4N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 11.4N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 12.9N 57.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 14.6N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 16.2N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 19.0N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 22.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 25.5N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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