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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Graphics
2013-07-09 19:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Jul 2013 17:42:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Jul 2013 15:05:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CHANTAL (AT3/AL032013)
2013-07-09 19:39:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...A LITTLE STRONGER CHANTAL MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Jul 9 the center of CHANTAL was located near 14.8, -62.7 with movement WNW at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Public Advisory Number 7A
2013-07-09 19:39:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 091739 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 200 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 ...A LITTLE STRONGER CHANTAL MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 62.7W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THAT ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARAHONA TO SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE * PUERTO RICO * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * TURKS AND CAICOS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST. CHANTAL IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND OBSERVATIONS FROM MARTINIQUE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST THE CENTER. SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANTAL MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH PUERTO RICO TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY LATE WEDNESDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Graphics
2013-07-09 17:09:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Jul 2013 15:09:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Jul 2013 15:05:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-07-09 17:07:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091507 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT DISTINCT BUT EXCELLENT RADAR DATA FROM BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE SHOW THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CHANTAL MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ABOUT 25 KNOTS BETWEEN MARTINIQUE AN ST. LUCIA. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 70 TO 75 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS LEVELED OFF TO ABOUT 1006 MB. BASED ON MORE REPRESENTIVE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PLANE...AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHANTAL IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS IS FORECAST BEFORE CHANTAL CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE IN THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY SMALL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CYCLONE CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TREND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. CHANTAL IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 KNOTS. I AM SURPRISED THE SYSTEM EVEN HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING AT THAT SPEED. CHANTAL IS BEING STEERED BY A RATHER STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA...THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY DAY 4 AND 5 THE STERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND CHANTAL WILL PROBABLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 14.4N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 15.8N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 17.4N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 21.3N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 24.5N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 26.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 27.5N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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