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Summary for Tropical Storm CHANTAL (AT3/AL032013)
2013-07-08 07:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 2:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 the center of CHANTAL was located near 10.1, -48.5 with movement W at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Public Advisory Number 1A
2013-07-08 07:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080533 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 200 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2013 ...CHANTAL RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 48.5W ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * DOMINICA * SAINT LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAINT VINCENT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST. CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS SAME RAPID WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL SHOULD APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-07-08 05:17:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080317 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 07 2013 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION HAD BECOME BETTER DEFINED SINCE THIS MORNING....WITH SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 35-KT WIND VECTORS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE ASCAT AND AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/23. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO STEER CHANTAL ON A WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP CHANTAL ON THE SAME HEADING UNTIL A WEAKNESS BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE TRACK OF CHANTAL SHOULD BEND MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN POSSIBLY NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS BUT THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW CHANTAL TO INTENSIFY SOME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IN ABOUT 72-96 HOURS COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY FORECAST BUT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT CHANTAL BY THAT TIME. THIS INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND LAND INTERACTION COULD EVEN CAUSE CHANTAL TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 9.8N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 10.8N 50.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 12.1N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 13.9N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 15.6N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 18.4N 73.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 22.0N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 25.0N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Graphics
2013-07-08 05:09:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2013 02:59:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2013 03:05:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CHANTAL (AT3/AL032013)
2013-07-08 05:01:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 the center of CHANTAL was located near 9.8, -47.2 with movement W at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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