je.st
news
Tag: fay
Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-07-11 04:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 110234 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Satellite and radar data indicate that Fay is no longer generating organized deep convection as the center moves into northern New Jersey. A combination of radar, aircraft, buoy, and ship data show that 30-35 kt winds are occurring over the water south of central and western long Island, and based on this the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt. The central pressure of 1001 mb is based on surface observations. Barring the return of convection, Fay should continue to weaken and become post-tropical on Saturday. After that, the system is expected to dissipate on Sunday as it merges with a frontal system over southeastern Canada. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. The initial motion is now northward or 005 degrees at 15 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged, as Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. The storm is moving a little to the left of the previous forecast, so the new forecast is nudged to the left due mainly to the initial position and motion. The new forecast lies close to the consensus models. Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as the heaviest rain and strongest winds are now occurring well away from the center. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from eastern Pennsylvania, northeast New Jersey and across southeast New York, into portions of New England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage. Isolated minor flooding is possible; however, widespread river flooding is not expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected for several more hours over portions of coastal New York and Connecticut, including most of Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 41.0N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/1200Z 43.6N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 12/0000Z 47.5N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/1200Z 51.1N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-07-11 04:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 110234 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT AUGUSTA ME 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CONCORD NH 34 16 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WORCESTER MA 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BOSTON MA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW HAVEN CT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HARTFORD CT 34 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) NEW LONDON CT 34 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ALBANY NY 34 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MONTAUK POINT 34 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLIP NY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NEWARK NJ 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-07-11 04:31:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 110231 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH AND WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY...NEW YORK. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST ROCKAWAY NEW YORK TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 74.2W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 74.2W AT 11/0300Z...INLAND AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 74.3W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 43.6N 73.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 47.5N 71.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 51.1N 68.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N 74.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062020)
2020-07-11 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 the center of Fay was located near 41.0, -74.2 with movement N at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 7
2020-07-11 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.0N 74.2W ABOUT 15 MI...30 KM NW OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued south and west of East Rockaway, New York. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East Rockaway New York to Watch Hill Rhode Island including most of Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 74.2 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Fay will move across portions of southeastern New York tonight, then across western New England into southeastern Canada on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Fay moves farther inland, and the system is expected to become a post- tropical low on Saturday and dissipate on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) over water to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its track from eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey across southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time; however, rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area for the next several hours. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] next »