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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-07-10 13:58:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 101158 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 1200 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE...INCLUDING SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND * SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 74.7W AT 10/1200Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 74.7W AT 10/1200Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.6N 74.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062020)
2020-07-10 13:24:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DELAWARE COASTLINE AS HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... As of 8:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 the center of Fay was located near 37.6, -74.7 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fay Graphics
2020-07-10 10:43:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 08:43:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 09:24:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-10 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100842 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay early this morning found that the storm had strengthened slightly, with maximum SFMR-observed surface winds near 45 kt. Additionally, the minimum central pressure had fallen a few mb since yesterday. Since the center of the cyclone is exposed on the southwest side of the main area of deep convection, and southwesterly shear over the system is forecast to persist, little if any additional strengthening is anticipated before landfall. Weakening should commence after the center moves inland in 12-24 hours. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest model consensus aids. Center fixes from the Air Force plane show that the storm continues moving northward at a slightly faster pace, or 360/9 kt. During the next couple of days, Fay should move between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a short-wave trough dropping into the Ohio Valley region. There has been little change to the official track forecast, which remains close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 37.4N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-07-10 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 100842 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORTLAND ME 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CONCORD NH 34 X 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WORCESTER MA 34 X 16(16) 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 25(25) 7(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HYANNIS MA 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 2 14(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 1 37(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 1 36(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X 31(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) HARTFORD CT 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 1 24(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ALBANY NY 34 X 14(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ALBANY NY 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 23(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 6 19(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLIP NY 34 4 37(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) ISLIP NY 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 11 35(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 3 33(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 4 26(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NEWARK NJ 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 5 14(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NWS EARLE NJ 34 11 28(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 7 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ATLANTIC CITY 34 39 4(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ATLANTIC CITY 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEAN CITY MD 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NORFOLK NAS 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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