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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-07-10 07:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 100535 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...FAY CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.7N 74.9W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 74.9 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast today and move inland over the mid-Atlantic or the northeast United States late tonight or on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today and tonight while the center remains over water. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the east and southeast of the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force plane is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 8 inches along and near its track across the mid Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area today and spread northward through the warning area tonight. STORM SURGE: Minor flooding is possible along the coast for portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Fay Graphics
2020-07-10 04:40:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:40:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:40:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-10 04:39:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100239 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the circulation center of Fay is elongated northeast-southwest, with satellite and radar data showing a strong convective cluster at the northeastern end of the elongation. There have been no observations near the center during the past few hours, and the initial intensity is held at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. An Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Fay. Due to the elongated center and the possibility the center is trying to re-form near the convection, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 010/7. There is no change to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and essentially no change to the forecast track. Fay is expected to move generally northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast until dissipation between 60-72 h. The guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast lies close to the various consensus models. Fay is currently over the Gulf Stream and within an area of light to moderate westerly shear caused by an upper-level trough to its west and southwest. This is producing an environment that should allow a little strengthening for the next 12-24 h. After that, the storm should weaken as it passes over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, followed by landfall over the northeastern United States. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling for extratropical transition between 48-60 h and dissipation shortly thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 36.3N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 37.7N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 43.0N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 46.7N 71.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/1200Z 50.2N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-07-10 04:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 100238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 7( 7) 22(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X 12(12) 19(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ISLIP NY 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 19(19) 13(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 11(11) 14(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X 10(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NEWARK NJ 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) TRENTON NJ 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 20(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 21(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 11 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 24 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) OCEAN CITY MD 50 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 18 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) WALLOPS CDA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062020)
2020-07-10 04:39:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FAY CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... As of 11:00 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 the center of Fay was located near 36.3, -74.8 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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