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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-07-10 10:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 154 WTNT21 KNHC 100841 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 74.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 74.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 74.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062020)
2020-07-10 10:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FAY SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 the center of Fay was located near 37.4, -74.8 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 3
2020-07-10 10:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 153 WTNT31 KNHC 100841 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...FAY SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.4N 74.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 74.8 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast today and move inland over the mid-Atlantic or the northeast United States late tonight or on Saturday. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today and tonight while the center remains over water. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) to the northeast and southeast of the center. The Air Force plane reported a minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area today and spread northward through the warning area tonight. STORM SURGE: Minor flooding is possible along the coast for portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Fay Graphics
2020-07-10 07:36:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 05:36:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 03:24:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062020)
2020-07-10 07:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FAY CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ... As of 2:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 the center of Fay was located near 36.7, -74.9 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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