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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 5
2020-07-10 16:49:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 101449 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.4N 74.5W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Fenwick Island Delaware to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound * Southern Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 74.5 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon and evening and move inland over the mid-Atlantic and northeast United States tonight and Saturday. Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today while the center remains over water. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland, and Fay is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station at Lewes, Delaware, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 50 mph (80 km/h). A National Ocean Service observing site at Lewes recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. The rain may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area through tonight. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-10 14:00:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 101200 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Special Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Surface observations and radar data from the KDOX WSR-88D radar indicate that there is now an area of 34-kt winds extending north and northwest of the center of Fay. These winds will be approaching the coast of Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay in the next few hours, and as a result the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward to Fenwick Island, Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay. No changes were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts, however 34-kt wind radii were introduced in the northwest quadrant at the initial time and at the 12-h forecast. No other changes were made to the wind radii analyses or forecasts. Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC) intermediate advisory. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1200Z 37.6N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Fay Graphics
2020-07-10 14:00:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 12:00:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 12:00:20 GMT
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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 4
2020-07-10 13:59:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 101159 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Special Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DELAWARE COASTLINE AS HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.6N 74.7W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward to Fenwick Island Delaware, including southern Delaware Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Fenwick Island Delaware to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound * Southern Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 74.7 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward to north- northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast today and move inland over the mid-Atlantic or the northeast United States late tonight or on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today and tonight while the center remains over water. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station at Lewes, Delaware recently reported a sustained wind of 33 mph (54 km/h) and a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning in the next few hours and spread northward through the warning area tonight. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-07-10 13:58:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 101158 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 1200 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 AT 1200Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORTLAND ME 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CONCORD NH 34 X 8( 8) 12(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WORCESTER MA 34 X 16(16) 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 25(25) 7(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HYANNIS MA 34 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 2 14(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 2 36(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 1 37(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 1 30(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) HARTFORD CT 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 1 24(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ALBANY NY 34 X 14(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ALBANY NY 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 22(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 6 20(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLIP NY 34 5 37(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ISLIP NY 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 14 34(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 4 32(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 5 26(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NEWARK NJ 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 7 13(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NWS EARLE NJ 34 14 26(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PHILADELPHIA 34 10 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ATLANTIC CITY 34 38 5(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ATLANTIC CITY 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 13 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 28 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) OCEAN CITY MD 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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