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Tropical Storm Fay Graphics
2020-07-10 00:07:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 22:07:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 22:07:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Fay Graphics
2020-07-09 22:58:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 20:58:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 20:58:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-09 22:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 092057 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations, have shown that the area of the low pressure near the coast of North Carolina reformed closer to the deep convection east of the Outer Banks today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the disturbance this afternoon confirmed that the center is located near the edge of the primary convective mass, and that the system is producing an area of 35-40 kt winds to the east and southeast of the center. Based on these observations, the system is classified as a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 40 kt. Fay is located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and within an area of light to moderate westerly shear. These environmental conditions could allow for slight strengthening tonight and Friday. After that time, the circulation is forecast to interact with the mid-Atlantic coast and will be passing over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, likely limiting any further intensification. Fay should weakening quickly once it moves inland Friday night or Saturday. Since a new center has recently formed, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/6 kt. Fay is expected to move generally northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough. The 12Z dynamical model guidance has come into much better agreement on a track very close to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. With the recent center reformation to the northeast, the tracker guidance from the dynamical models shows a track farther offshore than the model fields imply. As a result, the NHC track lies along the left side of the guidance envelope but it is not as far west as what is indicated in the model fields. The NHC track and intensity forecast has required the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the U.S. coast from the mid-Atlantic states to southern New England. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 35.5N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 37.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 39.0N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 41.6N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 49.1N 70.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062020)
2020-07-09 22:56:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS FORMED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 the center of Fay was located near 35.5, -74.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 1
2020-07-09 22:56:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092055 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS FORMED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 74.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape May New Jersey northward to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and Long Island Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 74.9 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward to north- northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday, and move inland over the northeast United States on Saturday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight and Friday. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east and southeast of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain along and near the track of Fay across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Friday and spread northward through the warning area Friday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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