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Tropical Storm Vicky Graphics
2020-09-15 10:34:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 08:34:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 08:34:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-09-15 10:34:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 150834 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Vicky (AT1/AL212020)
2020-09-15 10:33:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICKY FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 15 the center of Vicky was located near 20.3, -30.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-15 10:33:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150833 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...VICKY FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 30.1W ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 30.1 West. Vicky is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected within the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast due to strong upper-level winds during the next 48 hours, and Vicky is likely to degenerate into remnant low by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-15 10:33:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150833 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 30.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 30.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 29.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 21.0N 31.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.7N 33.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.2N 35.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.5N 37.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 38.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 30.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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