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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-15 16:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151439 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Although the stiff westerly shear (magnitude of greater than 50 kt) continues to affect Vicky's vertical structure this morning, a 1107 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass indicated that the cyclone is maintaining 45-kt sustained winds well to the east-northeast of the center. Therefore, once again for this advisory, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The ECMWF/FV3 SHIPS intensity models and the deterministic guidance, including the simulated infrared imagery product, agree with Vicky weakening to a remnant low in 36 hours and dissipating by 72 hours due to the persistent strong shear. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. Vicky is forecast to continue on this general motion through Wednesday night within the low-level tradewind flow. No significant changes were made to the previous advisory, and the new NHC forecast is based on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 20.6N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 21.3N 32.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 21.9N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 22.3N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 22.2N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z 22.2N 39.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Vicky (AT1/AL212020)
2020-09-15 16:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICKY HOLDING STEADY AS A TROPICAL STORM... ...WEAKENING EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 15 the center of Vicky was located near 20.6, -31.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-15 16:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 151439 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...VICKY HOLDING STEADY AS A TROPICAL STORM... ...WEAKENING EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 31.0W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 31.0 West. Vicky is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the west on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast due to strong upper-level winds during the next 48 hours, and Vicky is likely to degenerate into remnant low by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-15 16:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 151439 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-15 10:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150835 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Vicky remains sheared this morning with strong upper-level winds causing any deep convection to be located northeast of the center. The low-level circulation has also become distorted as well, with new bursts of convection causing the mean circulation to re-form to the north. The initial wind speed is kept 45 kt since the system isn't appreciably different than the last cycle. Models all weaken the storm during the next couple of days due to rather potent westerly shear (with 200-mb westerly winds as high as 70 kt forecast across Vicky's circulation). These extremely harsh conditions should make the intensity prediction rather simple, and Vicky is likely to decay into a remnant low within a day or two and open up into a trough in a few days. The re-formation of the center leads to an uncertain motion estimate of 325/8 kt. The storm should turn west-northwestward later today and westward on Wednesday as it becomes steered by the low-level subtropical ridge. Little change was made to the previous forecast, except for a small northward adjustment in the first day or so of the prediction due to the initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 20.3N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 21.0N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 21.7N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 22.2N 35.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 22.5N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 22.5N 38.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z 22.5N 40.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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