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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-14 22:34:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 142034 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 29.5W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 29.5W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 29.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.1N 30.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 21.2N 31.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.0N 33.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 35.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.9N 38.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.0N 39.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.1N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 29.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Vicky Graphics
2020-09-14 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 14:41:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 15:53:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-14 16:40:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 141440 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 A METOP A/B ASCAT scatterometer pass over the cyclone showed a large swath of winds in the northeast quadrant on the order of 35 to 39 kt. Deep convection in that region of the cyclone continues to increase as well as near the center of circulation. Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt, making this the twentieth named storm of the season. This should be a short-lived tropical cyclone, however, as increasing southwesterly shear is expected to quickly weaken Vicky to a depression in a couple days, and the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low Thursday. This scenario is based on a combination of the global models and the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity models. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 325/05 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move northwestward with some increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours within the low to mid-level steering flow produced by the eastern end of the African monsoon trough. By Tuesday night, Vicky should turn west-northwestward to westward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The official track forecast is close to the various consensus aids and is just to the north of the previous advisory beyond 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.7N 28.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 19.6N 29.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 20.6N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 21.6N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.2N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 22.7N 36.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 23.0N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z 23.1N 42.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Vicky (AT1/AL212020)
2020-09-14 16:40:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE TWENTIETH NAMED STORM OF THE 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... ...VICKY IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED... As of 2:00 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 the center of Vicky was located near 18.7, -28.5 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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ThinkFM: Globally renowned economist Vicky Pryce confirmed as keynote speaker
2018-02-27 10:22:00| BIFM News
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