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Tropical Storm Vicky Graphics
2020-09-15 04:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 02:34:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 02:34:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-15 04:33:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150233 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 200 AM CVT Tue Sep 15 2020 Vicky continues to be highly sheared due to strong upper- tropospheric flow associated with a nearby trough, and its associated deep convection is confined to a small cluster to the northeast of the center. An ASCAT overpass from a few hours ago showed an area of winds to just over 40 kt over the northern semicircle and, based on sampling limitations, the current intensity has been adjusted to 45 kt. The storm is not likely to maintain its intensity, since the dynamical guidance indicates that the shear over the cyclone will become even stronger during the next day or so. Therefore steady weakening is anticipated, and Vicky is likely to become a remnant low in about 36 hours. The official intensity forecast is near or slightly below the latest model consensus. Center fixes give a slow northwestward motion, or 315/6 kt. A narrow and weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Vicky should result in a northwestward to west-northwestward motion into early Wednesday. Thereafter, when the system will have probably have lost most of its deep convection, the shallow cyclone is likely to move mainly westward following the low-level environmental winds. The official track forecast is close to previous one and about in the middle of the guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.5N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 20.5N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 21.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 22.3N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 22.5N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 22.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z 22.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Vicky (AT1/AL212020)
2020-09-15 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICKY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED BUT STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 AM CVT Tue Sep 15 the center of Vicky was located near 19.5, -29.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-15 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 200 AM CVT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...VICKY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED BUT STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 29.9W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 29.9 West. Vicky is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected within the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast due to strong upper-level winds during the next 48 hours, and Vicky is likely to degenerate into remnant low by Wednesday Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-15 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150232 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 29.9W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 29.9W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 29.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.5N 31.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.4N 32.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 37.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 22.5N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.5N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 29.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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