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Tropical Storm Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2019-09-07 16:46:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 071446 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 25 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 26
2019-09-07 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 071445 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 128.4W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 128.4W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 127.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.3N 130.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.3N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.2N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.5N 143.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 128.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Juliette Graphics
2019-09-07 10:35:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 08:35:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 08:35:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 25
2019-09-07 10:34:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070834 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Juliette is rapidly declining and is well on its way to becoming post-tropical. Cloud tops have warmed dramatically over the past few hours, and satellite intensity estimates have decreased sharply in turn. ASCAT data that arrived shortly before 06Z revealed that Juliette is not as strong as previously estimated, with max winds of only 35-40 kt. Based on that new info, the intensity has been adjusted down to 40 kt. The main change in the NHC forecast is that it now shows Juliette becoming post-tropical in 24 hours. Given current trends, it could certainly happen much sooner than that. Otherwise, the overall reasoning behind the forecast is the same. Juliette is located over quite cold waters and will steadily spin down over the next several days. The tropical storm has turned westward and should continue heading west through the middle of next week, steered by low-level easterly trade winds. This track will take the soon-to-be remnant low over warmer waters by day 5, and some of the dynamical guidance suggests that Juliette could try to make a comeback at that time. However, extremely high wind shear should prevent any convection that does develop from becoming organized and regeneration is not expected. The NHC track and intensity forecasts remain very close to the various consensus aids throughout the 5-day period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 23.8N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 24.0N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 24.0N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1800Z 24.0N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0600Z 23.9N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0600Z 23.7N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0600Z 23.5N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0600Z 24.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2019-09-07 10:34:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 070834 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 5 11(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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