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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 23
2019-09-06 22:37:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 062037 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Deep convection associated with Juliette has continued to gradually decrease in coverage and organization today. The various satellite intensity estimates have continued to slowly decline, and now support an initial intensity of 60 kt. The tropical storm will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. This should result in steady weakening and Juliette is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours. The system will be moving back over slightly warmer waters later in the forecast period, but westerly shear should prevent any re-organization. Juliette is now moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should continue west-northwestward tonight, and then turn westward on Saturday as it weakens and is steered by the low-level easterly flow. The track guidance remains in good agreement but has trended slightly faster once again. The new official forecast was adjusted accordingly, and is once again near the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 23.4N 124.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 23.8N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 24.1N 130.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 23.9N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z 23.7N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z 24.0N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-06 22:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Sep 6 the center of Juliette was located near 23.4, -124.9 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Juliette Public Advisory Number 23
2019-09-06 22:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 062036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 ...JULIETTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 124.9W ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 124.9 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur on Saturday and a general westward motion should continue into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Juliette is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low late Saturday or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2019-09-06 22:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 062036 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 130W 34 1 9(10) 18(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 23
2019-09-06 22:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 062035 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.9W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.9W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 124.4W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.8N 126.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 128.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.1N 130.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.9N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.7N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 124.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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