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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 22
2019-09-06 16:36:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 061436 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 135.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 123.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Juliette Graphics
2019-09-06 13:23:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 11:23:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 11:23:41 GMT
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 21
2019-09-06 11:26:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060925 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 21...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019 Corrected motion in third paragraph. This evening's satellite presentation is showing a considerable amount of deterioration of Juliette's inner core. The eastern portion of the eyewall has eroded, cloud tops have continue to warm, and it appears as though some drier mid-level air is intruding from the northwest. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS Objective T-number supports lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt. Although the upper-level winds are expected to remain in a favorable pattern during the next couple days, the hurricane will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into increasingly stable thermodynamic conditions. Subsequently, gradual weakening should continue through the entire forecast period, and Juliette is expected to become a remnant low in 3 days, or less. The intensity forecast is basically a compromise of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the global models beyond the 48-hour period. The initial motion continues to be northwestward, or 305/9 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from the southwestern United States over the eastern Pacific should induce a west-northwestward turn on Friday, and this general motion should continue through the next couple of days. Toward the end of the period, a westward motion should commence as Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow depression, and eventually, a remnant low, and becomes steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The track forecast is an update of the previous advisory and sides with the TVCE model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 22.4N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0600Z 23.8N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2019-09-06 10:52:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 060851 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 7 13(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Hurricane Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-06 10:52:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE ON THE DECLINE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Thu Sep 5 the center of Juliette was located near 22.4, -122.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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