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Hurricane Juliette Public Advisory Number 20
2019-09-06 04:49:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 060248 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...JULIETTE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 121.8W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 121.8 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest should begin tonight or early Friday. A turn toward the west is forecast on Saturday and a general westward motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Juliette is forecast to become a tropical storm by Friday night, and degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2019-09-06 04:49:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 060248 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 125W 34 3 23(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 19(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 20
2019-09-06 04:48:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 060248 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 121.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.6N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 121.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Juliette Graphics
2019-09-05 22:35:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 20:35:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 20:35:04 GMT
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-09-05 22:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 052033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Juliette's structure remains well defined in visible satellite imagery, with a lose banding eye evident. Recent microwaves images, however, indicate that there are some breaks in the band and that the eye is open to the southwest. An average of the latest Dvorak data-T and current intensity (CI) numbers from SAB and TAFB yields a 70 kt estimate, while a UW/CIMSS AMSU estimate indicates 75-kt, and the latter is the basis for the new advisory intensity. Juliette will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a drier, and more stable air mass during the next few days. These unfavorable factors should result in gradual weakening of the hurricane. Increasing southwesterly shear by 72 hours is likely to cause a further demise of the cyclone, and Juliette is now anticipated to become post-tropical by day 3. Juliette is moving slightly faster toward the northwest or 305/10 kt. A northwestward to west-northwestward motion around the southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge should continue tonight and Saturday. After that time, a turn toward the west is expected as Juliette weakens and comes under the influence of the low-level easterly steering flow. Although the track guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario, there are some significant differences in the future forward speed of Juliette. Given this model spread, the NHC track prediction remains fairly close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.3N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 23.5N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 23.6N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/1800Z 23.3N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1800Z 23.2N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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