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Hurricane Juliette Public Advisory Number 18
2019-09-05 16:41:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 051441 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...JULIETTE STILL MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH... ...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 119.9W ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 119.9 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slightly faster west-northwestward to westward motion is expected to begin on Friday, and this general motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Juliette is expected to weaken to a tropical storm on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 18
2019-09-05 16:41:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 051441 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.9W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.9W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 119.6W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.6N 127.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.6N 131.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.2N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 119.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2019-09-05 16:41:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 051441 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 50 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 125W 34 1 5( 6) 21(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 16(22) 1(23) X(23) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Juliette Graphics
2019-09-05 10:54:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 08:54:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 08:54:24 GMT
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 17
2019-09-05 10:49:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050849 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Juliette's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours. If anything, the spiral bands appear to have improved a bit in the western portion of the cyclone. However, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have not increased, and the initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory. During the next 12 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to traverse decreasing SSTs and move into a more dry, stable air mass, and encounter increasing southwesterly shear. These increasingly inhibiting environmental factors should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken further, and degenerate into a remnant low in about 4 days, as the large-scale models indicate. The NHC forecast is just an update of the previous one, and follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity guidance. The initial motion is a little to the right of the last advisory package, and is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/8 kt. A turn back to the west-northwest within the steering flow produced by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should occur during the next 24 hours. After that, Juliette should continue moving in this general direction, with some increase in forward speed, through the 48 hour period. Afterward, a westward motion should begin as Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow depression, and ultimately, a remnant low, and becomes steered by the low-level easterly flow. The official forecast is a little to the right of the previous advisory and lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus models, and is nudged a bit toward the GEFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.2N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 21.0N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 23.6N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 23.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0600Z 22.8N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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