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Hurricane Juliette Public Advisory Number 21
2019-09-06 10:52:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019 608 WTPZ31 KNHC 060851 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019 ...JULIETTE ON THE DECLINE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 122.7W ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 122.7 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest should begin later tonight or Friday. A turn toward the west is forecast on Saturday and a general westward motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Juliette is expected to become a tropical storm by Friday night, and degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 21
2019-09-06 10:51:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 060851 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.7W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.7W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.8N 141.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 122.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Juliette Graphics
2019-09-06 04:51:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 02:51:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 02:51:19 GMT
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 20
2019-09-06 04:50:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060249 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Juliette has remained resilient despite moving over SSTs around 25-26C over the past several hours. Deep convection continues to envelop the center with a ragged eye apparent in both visible and infrared satellite imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest that the initial intensity remains at 75 kt. The cyclone will be moving over cooler waters of 24-25C tonight and tomorrow, and will remain over these water temperatures for the next several days. This should cause Juliette to slowly weaken. After 48 hours, southwesterly shear is expected to begin to impact Juliette's circulation. The combination of the cooler waters and shear should cause Juliette to become a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and near the various intensity consensus aids. Juliette's initial motion is 305/10 kt. A turn to the west-northwest is expected on Friday as the cyclone is steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. As the cyclone weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow, a turn to the west is expected. The only notable change to the new official forecast track was a slight increase in forward speed beyond 48 hours, as the consensus aids have come into a little better agreement on a faster forward motion during that time period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 21.8N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z 23.3N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0000Z 23.6N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-06 04:49:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 5 the center of Juliette was located near 21.8, -121.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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