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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-09-06 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 343 WTNT23 KNHC 060233 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 36.6W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 0SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 36.6W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 36.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.7N 38.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.9N 40.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.7N 42.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.1N 45.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.3N 48.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 38.5N 45.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 44.5N 38.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 36.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-05 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 20:35:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 20:35:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-09-05 22:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 052034 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 05 2019 Gabrielle is barely holding on to its status as a tropical cyclone. The closest deep convection is now displaced over 100 n mi to the north of the tropical storm's low-level center, and Dvorak intensity estimates have continued to decrease quickly. Given the lack of deep convection where the strongest winds were observed in earlier ASCAT data (not to mention near the cyclone's center), some weakening has likely occurred since then. The intensity is therefore set at 40 kt for this advisory. Very high shear should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours, and it is unlikely that Gabrielle will become any better organized during that period. In fact, it can not be ruled out that the cyclone could briefly become post-tropical due to a lack of deep convection during that period. However, the shear should decrease in a couple of days, and the cyclone will then be moving over very warm SSTs. Deep convection will likely increase over the weekend and some strengthening is still forecast thereafter. Most of the dynamical models even suggest that Gabrielle could become a hurricane before it starts to become extratropical sometime next week. The statistical guidance isn't nearly as bullish, so the NHC forecast continues to show only slow strengthening through the end of the forecast period. The tropical storm has slowed in the short term, but is forecast by all of the guidance to accelerate northwestward overnight. The models remain in very good agreement that Gabrielle will then continue northwestward for a few days before recurving early next week ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough. Once again, little change has been made to the NHC track forecast which is very close to the multi-model consensus at every forecast hour. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 23.4N 35.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 24.6N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 26.6N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 28.5N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 30.2N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 33.3N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 37.5N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 43.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-09-05 22:34:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 052034 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-05 22:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ITS CENTER... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 5 the center of Gabrielle was located near 23.4, -35.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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