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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-04 16:54:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019 282 WTNT43 KNHC 041454 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019 Gabrielle appears better organized on satellite imagery this morning with the low-level center moving a little more underneath the convection. In addition, a large curved band has become better defined in the northern semicircle. The initial wind speed is increased to 45 kt, which is consistent with a just-received ASCAT-C pass of 40-45 kt. The initial motion estimate is 320/8. For the next 5 days, Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge located between 40W-50W longitude. An increase in forward speed in a few days is expected due to the gradient between an upper-level low to the west and the ridge to the northeast. The official forecast track lies slightly to the east of the previous forecast in the short term, and then is very close to the previous NHC track in days 3 to 5. Gabrielle is expected to remain in a marginal environment during the next 2 to 3 days, with moderate southerly to southwesterly wind shear, low values of mid-level relative humidity and SSTs near 26-27C. No change in wind speed is predicted during the first two days. Thereafter, some strengthening is possible as Gabrielle moves on the northeast side of the upper-level low concurrent with the cyclone moving over warmer water. This is a typical situation for intensification, so the forecast wind speed is raised slightly at days 4-5. The intensity forecast is fairly consistent with the bulk of the typically reliable intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 20.5N 33.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 21.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 21.9N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 23.1N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 24.6N 38.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 28.6N 41.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 32.5N 45.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 36.5N 47.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Hagen
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-09-04 16:54:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 041454 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/HAGEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-04 16:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 4 the center of Gabrielle was located near 20.5, -33.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 4
2019-09-04 16:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019 823 WTNT33 KNHC 041453 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019 ...GABRIELLE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 33.8W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 33.8 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday, with an increase in forward speed expected late in the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Hagen
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-09-04 16:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 041453 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 33.8W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 33.8W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 33.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.0N 34.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.9N 35.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.1N 36.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.6N 38.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.6N 41.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 32.5N 45.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 36.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 33.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/HAGEN
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