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Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-05 16:43:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 5 the center of Gabrielle was located near 22.8, -35.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 8
2019-09-05 16:43:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 05 2019 851 WTNT33 KNHC 051443 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 05 2019 ...GABRIELLE MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 35.5W ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 35.5 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly faster northwestward motion is expected for the next 3 days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is possible today or tomorrow. Slow strengthening is then anticipated over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-09-05 16:43:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 850 WTNT23 KNHC 051443 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 35.5W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 0SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 35.5W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 35.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.8N 36.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 0SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.5N 38.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 0SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.4N 40.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 50SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.4N 42.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 37.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 42.0N 42.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 35.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-05 10:57:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 08:57:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 08:57:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-09-05 10:54:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050854 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 05 2019 METEOSAT imagery and an earlier WindSat microwave overpass show Gabielle's poorly defined center of circulation sheared well to the south of the curved convective band features to north, indicative of moderate southerly shear. The initial intensity is held at a generous 45 kt for this advisory, and is based on the subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although Gabrielle could experience some intensity fluctuations during the next 24 hours, the cyclone should remain in a rather harsh environment during the next 36-48 hours, due to south to southwesterly vertical shear, some dry air in the middle portions of the atmosphere, and oceanic sea surface temperatures on the order of 25-26C. Afterward, gradual strengthening is forecast as Gabrielle moves into a more favorable upper wind pattern and warmer SSTs, and this is consistent with the IVCN multi-model consensus and the Decay SHIPS. After the adjustment to the south of the previous advisory based on the ASCAT-A/B scatterometer passes and a recent SSMI/S image, the initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/7 kt. For the next several days, Gabrielle is expected to move generally northwestward toward a large weakness in the mid-Atlantic subtropical ridge. An increase in forward motion is expected as the steering flow strengthens between a cut-off low to the west and high pressure to the northeast. Around days 4 and 5, the cyclone should turn generally northward in response to an approaching mid-tropospheric short wave trough. An adjustment to the right of the previous forecast was made, and the NHC forecast is based on a blend of the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 21.9N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 22.7N 35.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 24.2N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 28.0N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 31.6N 46.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 35.8N 48.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 40.6N 44.7W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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