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Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-06 22:35:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 6 the center of Gabrielle was located near 27.9, -39.6 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 13
2019-09-06 22:35:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 062035 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 ...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 39.6W ABOUT 1010 MI...1620 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 39.6 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed are expected on Saturday. Gabrielle is forecast to gradually turn to the northwest and north on Sunday, then move at a faster pace to the northeast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gabrielle is anticipated to become a hurricane by late Sunday or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 13
2019-09-06 22:33:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 062033 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 39.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 39.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 39.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.3N 41.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.8N 44.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.2N 47.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.9N 48.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 38.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 44.0N 38.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 53.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 39.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-06 16:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 14:35:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 15:31:59 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-09-06 16:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 061435 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 Although Gabrielle was without organized deep convection for most of the past 24 hours, deep convection has quickly re-developed near and to the north of the center this morning. In addition, recent ASCAT data indicate that the winds have increased since last night, suggesting that tropical-cyclone intensification processes are ongoing. While normally we would wait a little longer to restart the cyclone, since the previous advisory and this one show the potential for significant strengthening, advisories are being re-initiated so that marine warnings that were already in place could remain. The initial intensity is set to 40 kt, in agreement with the ASCAT winds. The storm is moving faster to the northwest this morning, or 320/15. A large ridge to the northeast of Gabrielle is forecast to build to the north, forcing the tropical cyclone to turn west- northwestward on Saturday. After that time, southwesterly flow ahead of Hurricane Dorian should turn Gabrielle quickly northward and northeastward by early next week. Model guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast. Gabrielle is currently still experiencing strong southerly shear due to the winds around an upper-level low. However that low is forecast to drop southwestward, causing the storm to enter a low-shear region by tomorrow at the same time water temperatures rise to near 29C. This is a recipe for at least steady strengthening, and all of the models are much higher than the previous cycle. The new NHC prediction is increased at long-range as much as continuity allows and is still below many of the model forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 27.3N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 28.9N 40.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 30.7N 43.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 32.1N 46.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 33.4N 48.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 37.6N 47.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 42.6N 41.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 50.0N 29.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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