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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 14
2019-09-07 04:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070232 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 ...GABRIELLE INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 40.9W ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 40.9 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected on Saturday. A turn to the north is then forecast on Sunday, followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast and Gabrielle is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 14
2019-09-07 04:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070232 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 40.9W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......180NE 80SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 40.9W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 40.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 30.9N 42.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...170NE 80SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.1N 45.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.7N 47.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.7N 48.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 40.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 47.0N 34.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 56.1N 16.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-06 22:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 20:37:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 21:31:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-09-06 22:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062036 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 Gabrielle has become somewhat better organized during the past few hours, with a better-defined surface circulation moving closer to a large burst of convection in the northern semicircle. There has been little change in the intensity estimates, so the initial wind speed will stay 40 kt on this advisory. The storm continues to move to the northwest at about 15 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the northeast of Gabrielle is forecast to build westward, forcing the tropical cyclone to turn west- northwestward on Saturday. After that time, southwesterly flow ahead of Hurricane Dorian should turn Gabrielle quickly northward and northeastward by early next week. Other than some minor speed differences, the models continue to be tightly packed. The new NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and it lies near the NOAA corrected-consensus model. Southerly shear currently near Gabrielle is forecast to relax by late tomorrow, at about the same time that it moves over very warm waters near 29C. This should promote strengthening, and it is possible that Gabrielle could intensify quickly near recurvature. By 96 h, the cyclone should move north of the Gulf Stream, with increasing shear. These conditions should cause a fast extratropical transition between 96-120 h. The new NHC prediction is raised at 48 and 72 hours, and it should be noted that quite a few models show Gabrielle becoming a category 2 hurricane at some point during that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 27.9N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 29.3N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 30.8N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 32.2N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 33.9N 48.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 38.5N 46.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 44.0N 38.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 53.0N 23.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2019-09-06 22:35:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 062035 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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