je.st
news
Tag: gabrielle
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-06 04:36:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 02:36:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 02:36:11 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-09-06 04:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 060234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-09-06 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060234 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 05 2019 The center of Gabrielle has been devoid of deep convection since late this morning, as dry air and southerly shear have taken their toll. If this trend continues, then advisories may be discontinued Friday morning. For the time being, a recent scatterometer pass showed that 35 kt winds are still occurring in association with Gabrielle's circulation, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. SHIPS intensity guidance indicates strong shear will continue to affect the cyclone for the next 24 to 36 hours. If the circulation survives this, the shear will diminish. However, it appears that there will still be dry air to contend with. The forecast calls for a steady intensity through 36 hours, followed by slow strengthening as the shear becomes negligible. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone will move over cooler waters as it begins to transition to an extratropical cyclone, which should limit any non-baroclinic intensification beyond 96 hours. The intensity forecast is highly uncertain, as Gabrielle very well could become a post-tropical remnant low tomorrow. The convection will have to recover once the wind shear subsides, and I am skeptical that this will do so with any haste due to the dry air that is forecast to be in place. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is below the various consensus aids beyond 36 hours. Gabrielle has begun to accelerate to the northwest. The forward speed will increase a little more through Friday morning as the cyclone is steered between a mid- to upper-level low to its west, and a subtropical ridge to its east. Later in the forecast period, Gabrielle will begin to turn northward then northeastward and accelerate as a mid-latitude trough approaches the cyclone. The official track forecast is very close to the previous one through 72 hours, and then was nudged slightly to the left beyond that time due to a shift in the global models and consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 24.3N 36.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 25.7N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 27.9N 40.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 29.7N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 31.1N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 34.3N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 38.5N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 44.5N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-06 04:34:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 5 the center of Gabrielle was located near 24.3, -36.6 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 10
2019-09-06 04:34:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 05 2019 ...GABRIELLE BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 36.6W ABOUT 995 MI...1605 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1100 MI...1775 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 36.6 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north are forecast to occur on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday. Thereafter, slow strengthening is expected over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] next »