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Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

2020-08-03 10:56:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 03 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 030856 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC MON AUG 03 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 35(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) 17(17) 34(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) 13(13) 36(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 36(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 33(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) 11(11) 28(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 12(12) 26(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) 25(25) 28(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 38(38) 25(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) 12(12) 13(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) 31(31) 24(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) 10(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 35(35) 20(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) 10(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 46(46) 10(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) 17(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 47(47) 15(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) 18(18) 7(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 30(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ALLENTOWN PA 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 1( 1) 52(53) 7(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 1( 1) 62(63) 6(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) 27(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) DOVER DE 34 X 3( 3) 64(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 4( 4) 43(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 4( 4) 31(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 4( 4) 71(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) 40(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 5( 5) 72(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 42(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 5( 5) 58(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 6( 6) 74(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 43(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) RICHMOND VA 34 X 10(10) 46(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) RICHMOND VA 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) DANVILLE VA 34 X 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 17(17) 65(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NORFOLK NAS 50 X 1( 1) 41(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) NORFOLK VA 34 X 17(17) 65(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NORFOLK VA 50 X 1( 1) 40(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 17(17) 65(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X 1( 1) 41(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 30(30) 52(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X 3( 3) 37(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) RALEIGH NC 34 X 40(40) 6(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) RALEIGH NC 50 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 57(57) 18(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) ROCKY MT NC 50 X 16(16) 18(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 36(36) 24(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 62(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X 22(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 74(74) 10(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) CHERRY PT NC 50 X 26(26) 11(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 86(86) 4(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 45(45) 6(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) NEW RIVER NC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 72(72) 8(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 22(22) 8(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SURF CITY NC 34 1 88(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) SURF CITY NC 50 X 53(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 90(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 53(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 91(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 61(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FLORENCE SC 34 X 34(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) FLORENCE SC 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 3 88(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 55(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) LITTLE RIVER 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 4 83(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 47(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 2 64(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CHARLESTON SC 34 8 34(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 7 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number speed wind storm

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 25

2020-08-03 10:55:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 03 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 030855 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC MON AUG 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH...DELAWARE BAY... LONG ISLAND...AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO STONINGTON... MAINE...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA * NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH * TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY * LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO STONINGTON...MAINE * MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 79.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 79.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 79.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 31.3N 79.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.8N 78.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 39.4N 75.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 44.4N 71.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 48.6N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 52.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 79.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)

2020-08-03 07:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS... As of 2:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 the center of Isaias was located near 29.0, -79.8 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tags: summary storm tropical tropical storm

Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 24A

2020-08-03 07:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 030552 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020 ...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 79.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued along the east coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida to Fenwick Island Delaware * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay southward from Smith Point A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fenwick Island Delaware northward to Watch Hill Rhode Island * Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point * Tidal Potomac River * Delaware Bay * Long Island and Long Island Sound Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required today. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 79.8 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the north and north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is anticipated later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the Florida east coast through this morning. The center of Isaias will then move offshore of the coast of Georgia and southern South Carolina later today, move inland over eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 36 hours, but Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm when it reaches the coast of eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight. Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41010, located about 130 miles (210 km) east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) within the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft Sebastian Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft North of Cape Fear NC to Kiptopeke VA including Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse River, Pamlico River, Chesapeake Bay, and the Tidal Potomac River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in South and North Carolina tonight and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning on Tuesday. RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along and near the track of Isaias: Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 12 inches. Eastern Florida: Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 4 inches. Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals 8 inches. Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, is expected through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the southern Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South Carolina during the afternoon and evening today, and across eastern North Carolina this evening and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg

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