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Tropical Storm Isaias Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2020-08-03 05:22:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 03:22:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaias Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-08-03 04:48:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 02:48:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics
2020-08-03 04:45:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 02:45:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 03:24:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-08-03 04:43:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 030243 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 Isais has not become better organized on satellite and radar imagery at this time. The cyclone continues to produce vigorous deep convection but this convection continues to be displaced to the northeast of the center, and convective banding features are ill-defined. Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations show that the central pressure has not fallen since earlier today, and flight-level and SFMR-observed surface wind measurements from the aircraft indicate that the intensity remains near 60 kt. Although Isais will be moving through an environment of fairly strong southwesterly shear during the next day or so, it will also be traversing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream with its high oceanic heat content. The latter factor could result in the system becoming a hurricane near landfall. The official forecast is close to the intensity consensus, which keeps Isaias just below hurricane strength. It should be emphasized that there is little difference between a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane, in terms of impacts. After landfall, the interaction with land and strong shear should result in steady weakening. Based on the global models, the cyclone is likely to become an extratropical cyclone after it moves into Canada and dissipate over the north Atlantic shortly thereafter. The motion continues to be slightly west of due north or 345/8 kt. There has been no significant change to the track forecast reasoning. Over the next couple of days, Isaias is expected to accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of a large 500 mb trough over the eastern United States and then turn northeastward in 3 to 4 days as it moves through the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is very close to the previous one and similar to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. This is between the GFS, which shows a slightly faster motion and the ECMWF, which is slightly slower. Key Messages: 1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of 2 to 4 feet above ground level from Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to Maryland through early Tuesday. Isaias is expected to be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of northern South Carolina and southern North Carolina Monday night, and strong tropical storm force winds are likely with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, is expected through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic. 4. Tropical storm conditions are forecast to spread northward across the remainder of the U.S east coast on Tuesday and early Wednesday. A tropical storm watch is in effect through Long Island Sound and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 28.5N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 29.7N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 32.2N 79.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 35.9N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 40.5N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1200Z 45.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0000Z 50.0N 65.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/0000Z 55.5N 56.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2020-08-03 04:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 03 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 030243 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC MON AUG 03 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) X(16) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) X(21) X(21) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) X(23) X(23) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) X(23) X(23) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 10(10) 12(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 12(12) 32(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 17(17) 33(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 20(20) 17(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 24(24) 31(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 33(33) 9(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 52(52) 14(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) 18(18) 7(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 51(51) 15(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 19(19) 6(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 51(51) 15(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) 19(19) 8(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 62(62) 9(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) 27(27) 5(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 37(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 61(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 53(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 45(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 74(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 34(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 76(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 37(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 3( 3) 69(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 33(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 7( 7) 74(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 41(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 4( 4) 72(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 14(14) 68(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 1( 1) 40(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FLORENCE SC 34 X 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 17(17) 59(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 32(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 22(22) 50(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 26(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 18(18) 30(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 2 30(32) 7(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 11(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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