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Summary for Tropical Storm FAUSTO (EP1/EP062014)

2014-07-08 04:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...FAUSTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 7 the center of FAUSTO was located near 9.6, -120.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Public Advisory Number 2

2014-07-08 04:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 800 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014 ...FAUSTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 120.7W ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST. FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Advisory Number 2

2014-07-08 04:31:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 080231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 0300 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 120.7W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 120.7W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 120.2W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 9.9N 122.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 10.5N 124.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 11.2N 127.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.1N 129.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.8N 135.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 15.5N 139.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 16.8N 143.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 120.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 1

2014-07-08 00:45:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 330 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072245 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 330 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014 The area of low pressure located about 1000 nmi southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has acquired enough organized convection near the well-defined low-level circulation center to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Although convection has been waxing and waning over the past 12 hours or so, a new burst of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -83C have developed near and just south of the center. The system is being designated as Tropical Storm Fausto based on wind data from two earlier ASCAT passes at 1704 UTC and 1757 UTC that indicated reliable wind speed of 35-38 kt in the southeastern quadrant. Upper-level outflow is good and continues to expand in all quadrants. The initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt and is based primarily on microwave satellite data. Fausto is expected to move westward for the next day or so and then turn toward the west-northwest after that as the cyclone moves along the southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge to its north. By Days 4 and 5, a weakness is forecast by all of the global models to develop between 140W-150W longitude, which should allow Fausto to turn more toward the northwest. Although some of the models show the cyclone turning into the ridge and beginning to recurve, the official forecast only shows a slight stair-step in the track since the GFS and ECMWF models show the ridge building back westward at the end of the Day 5 period. The official advisory track is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models since they have a better depiction of the small tropical cyclone. Fausto is expected to remain in a favorable environment consisting of low vertical wind shear, a moist mid-level regime, and over sea-surface temperatures in excess of 28C for at least the next 72 hours. These conditions should allow for at least some gradual strengthening to occur, and the official forecast closely follows a blend of the GFS-based SHIPS and LGEM models. However, those intensity forecasts are based on the medium BAM model, which takes the cyclone well north of the official forecast track and into strong shear conditions and over colder water by Days 4 and 5. If Fausto fallows a low-latitude track as indicated by the NHC forecast, then strengthening rather than weakening could occur in the latter periods. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2230Z 9.5N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 9.7N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 10.0N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 10.7N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 11.5N 130.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 12.6N 136.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 14.7N 140.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 16.0N 146.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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