je.st
news
Tag: fausto
Tropical Storm FAUSTO Public Advisory Number 3
2014-07-08 10:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 ...FAUSTO HAS NOT STRENGTHENED FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 122.2W ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST. FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm FAUSTO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2014-07-08 10:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 080837 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 0900 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm FAUSTO Graphics
2014-07-08 04:38:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Jul 2014 02:38:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Jul 2014 02:32:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
fausto
Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-07-08 04:37:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080237 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 800 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014 The convective cloud pattern associated with Tropical Storm Fausto has continued to improve with numerous small curved bands having developed in the northern semicircle, while a large curved band has persisted in the southern semicircle. The upper-level outflow is good to excellent, and it has continued to expand and become more symmetrical. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on the improved cloud pattern, a 1757 UTC ASCAT-B overpass that showed a peak surface wind of 38 kt in the southeastern quadrant, and also the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT satellite intensity estimates of T2.8/41 kt. The initial motion estimate is 275/10 kt. The forecast track was shifted to the right of the previous advisory track, but the forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Fausto should move westward to west-northwestward for the next 72 hours or so as the cyclone skirts the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to its north along 24N-25N latitude. By Days 4 and 5, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to dig southward from the north-central Pacific and weaken the ridge between 140W-150W longitude, causing Fausto to turn more northwestward toward the weakness or break in the ridge. As the cyclone gains latitude, it is expected to encounter increasing westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear and cooler waters by Days 4 and 5, which should weaken the system and cause it to become more shallow and be steered more westward by the strong low-level easterly trade wind flow. The official forecast track is south of the consensus model TCVE due to expected weak northwesterly mid-level wind shear impinging on the vortex column and keeping it farther south closer to the deep convection. This complex steering pattern is depicted well by the HWRF model, which initialized Fausto much better than the other models, and shows a deeper vortex throughout the forecast period. Fausto is expected to remain in a favorable environment of wind shear less than 10 kt, mid-level moisture greater than 70 percent, and sea-surface temperatures in excess of 28C for the next 48 hours or so, which should result in at least gradual strengthening. The HWRF model makes Fausto a hurricane in about 48 hours, which isn't entirely out of the question if convection can wrap around the north side of the low-level center, resulting in a stronger and better developed vortex column. For now, however, the official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN due to modest mid-level shear undercutting the favorable upper-level outflow pattern, which is expected to inhibit development somewhat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 9.6N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 9.9N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 10.5N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 11.2N 127.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 12.1N 129.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 13.8N 135.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 15.5N 139.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 16.8N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm FAUSTO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-07-08 04:33:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 080233 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 0300 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Sites : [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] next »