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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Graphics
2014-07-08 17:08:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Jul 2014 14:53:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Jul 2014 15:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-07-08 16:49:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 081449 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 Fausto's cloud pattern has not become better organized over the past few hours, with little evidence of banding features. The center is not easy to locate, even on first-light visible images, but microwave imagery suggest that it is near the northern edge of the main area of deep convection. The current intensity is held at 40 kt, but this may be generous in light of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The upper-level outflow is well-defined except over the northwest quadrant of the storm. The tropical cyclone should be moving through a light vertical shear and warm ocean environment for the next couple of days, which would favor intensification. However, the air mass ahead of Fausto appears to be drier and more stable, and this would hinder strengthening. Global models such as the GFS and ECMWF continue to show the system weakening over the next several days, and this is likely due to the unfavorable thermodynamic factors. The official intensity forecast is a little more conservative than the previous ones, and close to the model consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be slightly north of west, or 280/12. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Fausto should result in a generally west-northwestward track for the next several days. By days 3-5, a weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 140-145 degrees west longitude should cause some deceleration and a slight turn to the right. At the end of the forecast period, it is expected that Fausto will be weakening and turning more westward in the lower-tropospheric steering flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 9.7N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 10.3N 125.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 11.0N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 11.9N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 12.9N 133.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 14.8N 139.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 16.5N 142.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 17.5N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-07-08 16:49:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 081449 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 1500 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm FAUSTO (EP1/EP062014)
2014-07-08 16:49:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FAUSTO CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 the center of FAUSTO was located near 9.7, -123.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Public Advisory Number 4
2014-07-08 16:49:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 081448 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 ...FAUSTO CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.7N 123.2W ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.2 WEST. FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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