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Summary for Tropical Storm ARTHUR (AT1/AL012014)
2014-07-01 19:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE... As of 2:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 the center of ARTHUR was located near 27.9, -79.4 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Public Advisory Number 3A
2014-07-01 19:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 011745 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 200 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 79.4W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION SITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED A GUST OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM... MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TODAY. RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Graphics
2014-07-01 17:11:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 14:56:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 15:05:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2014-07-01 17:08:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 011508 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 CORRECTED STORM STATUS AND NAME TO ARTHUR AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 1(26) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 1(32) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 12(29) X(29) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 7(34) X(34) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 8(37) X(37) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 11(31) X(31) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 58(61) 3(64) X(64) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 3(31) X(31) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 54(62) 1(63) X(63) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 1(28) X(28) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 40(55) X(55) X(55) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 25(49) X(49) X(49) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 25(32) 9(41) X(41) X(41) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 17(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS 34 1 3( 4) 17(21) 9(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 2( 3) 12(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 13(15) 17(32) 3(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 3 8(11) 8(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) COCOA BEACH FL 34 12 18(30) 7(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 11 18(29) 7(36) 2(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) PATRICK AFB 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 19 8(27) 3(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) FT PIERCE FL 50 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 7 2( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MIAMI FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARCO ISLAND 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 6 2( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-07-01 17:02:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011502 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective organization of the cyclone has improved since the previous advisory, and the cyclone is being upgraded based on a sustained wind report of 33 kt from Settlement Point (SPGF1) on Grand Bahama Island earlier this morning that was outside of the deep convection. After remaining nearly stationary earlier this morning, Arthur appears to to be drifting northwestward now with an uncertain motion of 315/02 kt. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the previous forecast track. The latest model guidance has continued the trend of a pronounced mid-tropospheric trough digging southeastward from the upper-midwest into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic region of the United States by 72 hours. The 500 mb flow pattern is almost identical in the GFS and ECMWF models, which increases the confidence in this evolving pattern. As a result, a steady increase in southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States is expected to gradually turn the tropical cyclone northward over the next 24-36 hours, and then accelerate the system faster toward the northeast on Thursday and Friday. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is forecast to move over the far north Atlantic as an extratropical cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope close to the consensus model TVCA. Northwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast by the models to gradually subside over the next 48 hours, which should allow the cyclone to develop its own upper-level outflow pattern. In fact, latest visible and water vapor imagery indicates that cirrus outflow has been expanding on the north side of the system during the past few hours, suggesting that the shear conditions could already be subsiding. The low shear conditions and warm sea-surface temperatures should allow for at least steady strengthening, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest intensity model consensus IVCN through 36 hours, and then slightly higher after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 27.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 29.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 31.2N 78.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 35.4N 75.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 40.8N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 45.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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