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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 7

2014-07-02 16:59:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 021459 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes were sending observations from Arthur during the past several hours. The data indicate that Arthur remains with an initial intensity of 50 knots. These strong winds are currently confined to the eastern semicircle. Although the cloud pattern on satellite is somewhat ragged, the radar presentation is fair with numerous rainbands. The presence of mid-level dry air is limiting the intensification in the short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of warm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 36 hours, and so does the official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone is forecast to lose tropical characteristics thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the consensus of the models. Arthur is moving northward at around 6 kt. The synoptic reasoning from the previous cycle is unchanged and Arthur will likely accelerate to the north and northeast over the next couple days. Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance, the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the area under hurricane watch. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/114756.shtml? inundation#contents FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 29.1N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 30.1N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 31.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 33.5N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 36.0N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 42.0N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 47.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1200Z 51.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila

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Summary for Tropical Storm ARTHUR (AT1/AL012014)

2014-07-02 16:55:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 the center of ARTHUR was located near 29.1, -79.1 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2014-07-02 16:55:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 021455 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 13(28) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 11(34) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 2(43) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 4(38) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 1(32) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 33(51) X(51) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 16(50) X(50) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 1(31) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20(33) X(33) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15(29) X(29) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) X(33) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) X(44) X(44) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 48(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 48(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 3( 4) 55(59) 16(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 20(20) 21(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) WILMINGTON NC 34 1 5( 6) 46(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 16(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 9(10) 28(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 12(13) 6(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Public Advisory Number 7

2014-07-02 16:55:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 021455 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 79.1W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING PAMLICO AND EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/ VIRGINIA BORDER * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...2 TO 4 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Advisory Number 7

2014-07-02 16:53:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 021453 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING PAMLICO AND EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/ VIRGINIA BORDER * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 79.1W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 79.1W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.1N 78.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 31.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.5N 76.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 42.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 47.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 51.5N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 79.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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