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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Public Advisory Number 4

2014-07-01 23:03:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 012103 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 CORRECTED DAY OF EXPECTED STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE IN THE DISCUSSION SECTION ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARTHUR STRONGER AS IT MEANDERS OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 79.4W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...THE SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION SITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...63 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH...81 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING INTERMITTENTLY ON THE WESTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE THIS EVENING. RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 4

2014-07-01 22:53:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 012053 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Although radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective pattern of Arthur has changed little since the previous advisory... an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone this afternoon has found that flight-level and SFMR surface winds in the southeastern quadrant that support increasing the intensity to 45 kt. In fact, the flight crew has been been bounced around pretty good by strong thunderstorms in that area and have been forced to climb to a higher altitude in order to avoid significant turbulence. Arthur has been drifting northwestward at 325/02 kt. No significant change has been made to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The latest reliable numerical models remain in good agreement on large mid-level trough digging southeastward into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic states during the next 72 hours, while a subtropical ridge east of the Carolinas gradually strengthens. The combination of these two systems is expected to steadily increase the southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States and the extreme western Atlantic. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is forecast to accelerate rapidly northeastward ahead of the aforementioned trough as an extratropical cyclone. The official forecast track is again just an update of the previous advisory track, and remains in the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope and close to the consensus model TVCA. Northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually abate over the next 48 hours, allowing Arthur to develop an upper-level outflow pattern that is conducive to strengthening. The primary inhibiting factor will be the occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air to the north of the cyclone penetrating into the center and briefly disrupting the inner-core convection. However, the global and regional models are forecasting the inner core region to moisten significantly by 36-48 hours, which should allow Arthur to strengthen into a hurricane while the cyclone is over warm SSTs and in light shear conditions. After 72 hours, Arthur will be be moving over cooler water and is forecast to experience vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt, which should induce at least steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 27.8N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 28.3N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 30.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 36.6N 73.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 42.2N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/1800Z 46.8N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2014-07-01 22:47:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 012047 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 6(29) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) X(29) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) X(36) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) X(25) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 6(24) X(24) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) X(20) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 4(36) X(36) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 1(39) X(39) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 1(42) X(42) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 3(37) X(37) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 66(74) X(74) X(74) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) X(42) X(42) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 53(71) X(71) X(71) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) X(36) X(36) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 30(61) X(61) X(61) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) X(25) X(25) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 37(43) 12(55) X(55) X(55) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 1( 2) 8(10) 30(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 1( 2) 8(10) 12(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 1 4( 5) 15(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MAYPORT NS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 21(22) 7(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 2 7( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 25 11(36) 3(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) COCOA BEACH FL 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 23 12(35) 2(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) PATRICK AFB 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 22 3(25) 2(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) W PALM BEACH 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Advisory Number 4

2014-07-01 22:46:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 012046 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 79.4W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 79.4W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 79.3W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.3N 79.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.4N 79.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 36.6N 73.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 42.2N 65.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 46.8N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 79.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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