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Summary for Tropical Storm ARTHUR (AT1/AL012014)

2014-07-02 10:55:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS ARTHUR MOVES NORTHWARD... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 the center of ARTHUR was located near 28.4, -79.1 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Public Advisory Number 6

2014-07-02 10:55:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 020855 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS ARTHUR MOVES NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 79.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET....AND FROM NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA * NORTH OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY AND APPROACH THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...NORTHEAST OF ARTHUR...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY. RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2014-07-02 10:53:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 020853 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 19(33) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 6(41) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 13(39) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 3(30) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 2(47) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 40(48) X(48) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 1(31) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) X(28) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) X(24) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 6(25) X(25) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 6(40) X(40) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 5(48) X(48) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 4(28) X(28) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) X(29) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) X(26) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 14(29) X(29) X(29) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 15(32) X(32) X(32) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) X(26) X(26) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 54(61) 17(78) X(78) X(78) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 19(44) X(44) X(44) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 55(70) 3(73) X(73) X(73) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 4(38) X(38) X(38) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 30(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 3( 4) 33(37) 11(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 5( 6) 25(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Advisory Number 6

2014-07-02 10:52:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 020852 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET....AND FROM NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA * NORTH OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 79.1W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 79.1W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.3N 79.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.5N 79.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.2N 76.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 46.0N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 50.0N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 79.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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