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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Public Advisory Number 9A

2014-07-03 07:49:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 030549 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 200 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 ...ARTHUR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 79.1W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK * PAMLICO SOUND * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY * NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING CHEASEPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON. AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING ARTHUR THIS MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART

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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Graphics

2014-07-03 05:10:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2014 02:49:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2014 03:05:47 GMT

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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 9

2014-07-03 04:55:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030255 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, along with satellite data, indicate that Arthur is very near hurricane strength. On one side, the central pressure has fallen to 988 mb, there were a few estimates of hurricane force winds from the SFMR instrument on the Air Force plane, and there are several satellite intensity estimates of 65-75 kt. On the other side, the flight-level winds from the two aircraft did not support hurricane strength, and the SFMR winds from the NOAA plane were also below hurricane strength. Given the conflicting data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate Arthur around 06Z. The initial motion is now 360/7. Arthur is moving through a weakness in the subtropical ridge towards the westerlies over the eastern United States. During the next 24-36 hours, the cyclone should recurve northeastward ahead of a deep-layer baroclinic trough moving eastward through the Great Lakes and New England. While the guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, the center of the guidance envelope has again shifted a little westward toward the North Carolina coast. The GFS has made a rather significant shift since the previous run, and it now brings the center of Arthur across eastern North Carolina. The new forecast track is shifted a little closer to the coast, but it will stay in the center of the guidance envelope to the east of the GFS. Coastal radar data shows that Arthur is having trouble maintaining a closed eyewall, which is likely due to continued entrainment of dry air. However, the storm should remain in an area of light vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36 hours or so. Thus, the new intensity forecast calls for additional strengthening during that time similar to the previous forecast. After 48 hours, Arthur should merge with the baroclinic trough over the Canadian Maritimes and become extratropical. The intensities and wind radii during the extratropical phase have been modified based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 30.6N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 31.7N 78.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 33.5N 77.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 36.0N 74.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 39.0N 70.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 45.5N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/0000Z 51.0N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/0000Z 55.5N 50.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2014-07-03 04:47:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 030247 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) 1(30) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 19(39) X(39) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 51(51) 6(57) X(57) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 13(48) X(48) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 2(35) X(35) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 67(67) 1(68) X(68) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 70(70) X(70) X(70) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 2(44) X(44) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 1(45) X(45) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) X(40) X(40) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) X(18) X(18) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) X(26) X(26) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 27(47) X(47) X(47) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 32(61) X(61) X(61) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) X(26) X(26) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) X(30) X(30) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 9(33) X(33) X(33) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 12(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 8(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 13(14) 79(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 1( 1) 66(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 53(55) 35(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 11(11) 48(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) WILMINGTON NC 34 2 68(70) 4(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 22(22) 7(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 3 50(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) MYRTLE BEACH 50 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 9 9(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Storm ARTHUR (AT1/AL012014)

2014-07-03 04:46:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ARTHUR HAS NOT YET BECOME A HURRICANE... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 the center of ARTHUR was located near 30.6, -79.1 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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