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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Graphics
2014-07-02 13:47:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2014 11:47:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2014 09:05:47 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ARTHUR (AT1/AL012014)
2014-07-02 13:47:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ARTHUR CLOSELY MONITORED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES... As of 8:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 the center of ARTHUR was located near 28.8, -79.0 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Public Advisory Number 6A
2014-07-02 13:47:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 021147 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 800 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 ...ARTHUR CLOSELY MONITORED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 79.0W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA * NORTH OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/ VIRGINIA BORDER * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY AND APPROACH THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF ARTHUR...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 63 MPH...101 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY. RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Graphics
2014-07-02 11:11:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2014 08:53:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2014 09:05:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-07-02 10:57:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020857 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 Despite a somewhat ragged appearance on satellite imagery, Arthur has strengthened overnight. Data from two ASCAT passes between 02 and 03 UTC showed a broad area of 45-50 kt winds east and northeast of the center. In addition, NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have found surface winds in the 45-50 kt range to the south and northeast of the center, while also finding the central pressure has fallen to about 996 mb. Based on all of these data, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt. Arthur is still suffering the effects of dry air aloft being entrained into the western half of the circulation, which features only limited cold cloud tops. The primary convective band is situated east and southeast of the center, and some semblance of an eye has been visible in satellite and radar imagery and was reported by the aircraft. This lopsided structure suggests that Arthur will not strengthen quickly in the short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of warm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows the cyclone becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours, and so does the official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into a high shear environment ahead of an advancing mid/upper-level trough, which should result in weakening during the extratropical transition process. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus aid IVCN through the period. Arthur has begun moving steadily northward at around 5 kt. The overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the tropical cyclone should continue northward for the next 12 to 24 hours and then gradually accelerate northeastward between the aforementioned trough and a strengthening ridge to the east. The track guidance envelope has shifted back to the west a little for this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but now lies on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope through 48 hours. Given the new NHC forecast, hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of the coasts of South and North Carolina. Warnings may be required for portions of these areas later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 28.4N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 29.3N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 30.5N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 34.2N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 40.0N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 46.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/0600Z 50.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan
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